Current wildfire risk assessments rely on coarse hazard maps and opaque machine learning models that optimize regional accuracy while sacrificing interpretability at the decision scale. WildfireGenome addresses these gaps through three components: (1) fusion of seven federal wildfire indicators into a sign-aligned, PCA-based composite risk label at H3 Level-8 resolution; (2) Random Forest classification of local wildfire risk; and (3) SHAP and ICE/PDP analyses to expose county-specific nonlinear driver relationships. Across seven ecologically diverse U.S. counties, models achieve accuracies of 0.755-0.878 and Quadratic Weighted Kappa up to 0.951, with principal components explaining 87-94% of indicator variance. Transfer tests show reliable performance between ecologically similar regions but collapse across dissimilar contexts. Explanations consistently highlight needleleaf forest cover and elevation as dominant drivers, with risk rising sharply at 30-40% needleleaf coverage. WildfireGenome advances wildfire risk assessment from regional prediction to interpretable, decision-scale analytics that guide vegetation management, zoning, and infrastructure planning.

Wildfires pose a significant global threat to ecosystems worldwide, with California experiencing recurring fires due to various factors, including climate, topographical features, vegetation patterns, and human activities. This study aims to develop a comprehensive wildfire risk map for California by applying the random forest (RF) algorithm, augmented with Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) through Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to interpret model predictions. Model performance was assessed using both spatial and temporal validation strategies. The RF model demonstrated strong predictive performance, achieving near-perfect discrimination for grasslands (AUC = 0.996) and forests (AUC = 0.997). Spatial cross-validation revealed moderate transferability, yielding ROC-AUC values of 0.6155 for forests and 0.5416 for grasslands. In contrast, temporal split validation showed enhanced generalization, especially for forests (ROC-AUC = 0.6615, PR-AUC = 0.8423). SHAP-based XAI analysis identified key ecosystem-specific drivers: soil organic carbon, tree cover, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) emerged as the most influential in forests, whereas Land Surface Temperature (LST), elevation, and vegetation health indices were dominant in grasslands. District-level classification revealed that Central Valley and Northern Buttes districts had the highest concentration of high-risk grasslands, while Northern Buttes and North Coast Redwoods dominated forested high-risk areas. This RF-SHAP framework offers a robust, comprehensible, and adaptable method for assessing wildfire risks, enabling informed decisions and creating targeted strategies to mitigate dangers.

Abstract--T o mitigate acute wildfire ignition risks, utilities de-energize power lines in high-risk areas. The Optimal Power Shut-off (OPS) problem optimizes line energization statuses to manage wildfire ignition risks through de-energizations while reducing load shedding. OPS problems are computationally challenging Mixed-Integer Linear Programs (MILPs) that must be solved rapidly and frequently in operational settings. For a particular power system, OPS instances share a common structure with varying parameters related to wildfire risks, loads, and renewable generation. This motivates the use of Machine Learning (ML) for solving OPS problems by exploiting shared patterns across instances. In this paper, we develop an ML-guided framework that quickly produces high-quality de-energization decisions by extending existing ML-guided MILP solution methods while integrating domain knowledge on the number of energized and de-energized lines. Results on a large-scale realistic California-based synthetic test system show that the proposed ML-guided method produces high-quality solutions faster than traditional optimization methods.

Wildfires are increasing in intensity and severity at an alarming rate. Recent advances in AI and publicly available satellite data enable monitoring critical wildfire risk factors globally, at high resolution and low latency. Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) is a critical wildfire risk factor and is valuable for both wildfire research and operational response. However, ground-based LFMC samples are both labor intensive and costly to acquire, resulting in sparse and infrequent updates. In this work, we explore the use of a pretrained, highly-multimodal earth-observation model for generating large-scale spatially complete (wall-to-wall) LFMC maps. Our approach achieves significant improvements over previous methods using randomly initialized models (20 reduction in RMSE). We provide an automated pipeline that enables rapid generation of these LFMC maps across the United States, and demonstrate its effectiveness in two regions recently impacted by wildfire (Eaton and Palisades).

A growing number of fire departments across the country are turning to artificial intelligence to help detect and respond to wildfires more quickly. In Aspen, Colorado, fire officials say wildfire risk has shifted from being a seasonal concern to a year-round threat. To meet that challenge, they're using AI-powered cameras to detect smoke -- sometimes before 911 calls even come in. "They're getting a full 360-degree picture of the landscape," said Satyam. High in the mountains, rotating cameras scan the terrain for smoke.

Large language models (LLMs) are a transformational capability at the frontier of artificial intelligence and machine learning that can support decision-makers in addressing pressing societal challenges such as extreme natural hazard events. As generalized models, LLMs often struggle to provide context-specific information, particularly in areas requiring specialized knowledge. In this work we propose a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG)-based multi-agent LLM system to support analysis and decision-making in the context of natural hazards and extreme weather events. As a proof of concept, we present WildfireGPT, a specialized system focused on wildfire hazards. The architecture employs a user-centered, multi-agent design to deliver tailored risk insights across diverse stakeholder groups. By integrating natural hazard and extreme weather projection data, observational datasets, and scientific literature through an RAG framework, the system ensures both the accuracy and contextual relevance of the information it provides. Evaluation across ten expert-led case studies demonstrates that WildfireGPT significantly outperforms existing LLM-based solutions for decision support.

Wildfires pose significant threats to ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide, necessitating advanced predictive methods for effective mitigation. This study introduces a novel and comprehensive dataset specifically designed for wildfire prediction in Morocco, addressing its unique geographical and climatic challenges. By integrating satellite observations and ground station data, we compile essential environmental indicators such as vegetation health (NDVI), population density, soil moisture levels, and meteorological data aimed at predicting next-day wildfire occurrences with high accuracy. Our methodology incorporates state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning algorithms, demonstrating superior performance in capturing wildfire dynamics compared to traditional models. Preliminary results show that models using this dataset achieve an accuracy of up to 90%, significantly improving prediction capabilities. The public availability of this dataset fosters scientific collaboration, aiming to refine predictive models and develop innovative wildfire management strategies. Our work not only advances the technical field of dataset creation but also emphasizes the necessity for localized research in underrepresented regions, providing a scalable model for other areas facing similar environmental challenges.

Understanding and adapting to climate change is paramount for professionals such as urban planners, emergency managers, and infrastructure operators, as it directly influences urban development, disaster response, and the maintenance of essential services. Nonetheless, this task presents a complex challenge that necessitates the integration of advanced technology and scientific insights. Recent advances in LLMs present an innovative solution, particularly in democratizing climate science. They possess the unique capability to interpret and explain technical aspects of climate change through conversations, making this crucial information accessible to people from all backgrounds Rillig et al. [2023], Bulian et al. [2023], Chen et al. [2023]. However, given that LLMs are generalized models, their performance can be improved by providing additional domain-specific information. Recent research has been focusing on augmenting LLMs with external tools and data sources to ensure that the information provided is scientifically accurate: for example, leveraging authoritative data sources such as ClimateWatch Kraus et al. [2023] and findings from the IPCC AR6 reports Vaghefi et al. [2023] helps in refining the LLM's outputs, ensuring that the information is grounded in the latest research.

AI has been proposed as an important tool to support several efforts related to nature-based climate solutions such as the detection of wildfires that affect forests and vegetation-based offsets. While this and other use-cases provide important demonstrative value of the power of AI in climate change mitigation, such efforts have typically been undertaken in silos, without awareness of the integrative nature of real-world climate policy-making. In this paper, we propose a novel overarching framework for AI-aided integrated and comprehensive decision support for various aspects of nature-based climate decision-making. Focusing on vegetation-based solutions such as forests, we demonstrate how different AI-aided decision support models such as AI-aided wildfire detection, AI-aided vegetation carbon stock assessment, reversal risk mitigation, and disaster response planning can be integrated into a comprehensive framework. Rather than being disparate elements, we posit that the exchange of data and analytical results across elements of the framework, and careful mitigation of uncertainty propagation will provide tremendous value relative to the status-quo for real-world climate policy-making.

Carbon offset programs are critical in the fight against climate change. One emerging threat to the long-term stability and viability of forest carbon offset projects is wildfires, which can release large amounts of carbon and limit the efficacy of associated offsetting credits. However, analysis of wildfire risk to forest carbon projects is challenging because existing models for forecasting long-term fire risk are limited in predictive accuracy. Therefore, we propose an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model trained on 7 million global satellite wildfire observations. Validation results suggest substantial potential for high resolution, enhanced accuracy projections of global wildfire risk, and the model outperforms the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research's leading fire model. Applied to a collection of 190 global forest carbon projects, we find that fire exposure is projected to increase 55% [37-76%] by 2080 under a mid-range scenario (SSP2-4.5). Our results indicate the large wildfire carbon project damages seen in the past decade are likely to become more frequent as forests become hotter and drier. In response, we hope the model can support wildfire managers, policymakers, and carbon market analysts to preemptively quantify and mitigate long-term permanence risks to forest carbon projects.